The Why #67: Why does it feel like everyone is in Europe right now?
Dan Monheit 14.7.23
Question submitted by Charlie, Sydney
Because they are Charlie, at least according to Insta. And I’ll be the first to admit that if I wasn’t writing this email poolside in Europe, I too would be well and truly fed up with it all. I mean seriously, can’t these people get a little more creative with their holiday destinations?
That said, it is starting to get a little crowded over here. The daily struggle to secure prime lounge chairs is real, and getting a booking anywhere decent after 8pm is a total nightmare. At least back home the streets must be quiet and the parking abundant, right?
How do you explain it? Could it be that the world’s entire population (except for you, dear Charlie) has managed to squeeze into Europe for the summer?
Improbabile’ (that’s how we say ‘unlikely’ in Italy). Let’s get into it.
Confirmation Bias
Confirmation Bias describes our tendency to seek out and upweight information that supports our existing beliefs, while undervaluing, discrediting, ignoring or avoiding information that runs counter.
An experiment carried out by Lord, Ross and Lepper in 1979 provides us with a striking demonstration of the Confirmation Bias in action. The researchers gathered two opposing groups of students; one who were pro-capital punishment, believing it to be an effective deterrent of crime, and the other against, believing it had no effect at all.
Each of the highly-opinionated groups were asked to review two studies: one of which contained strong, irrefutable evidence in support of capital punishment’s impact on crime reduction, while the other contained equally strong evidence against it.
Lo and behold, the students in favour of capital punishment found the material that supported their stance to be highly credible, while regarding the other study as entirely unconvincing. The students who held the opposite view found the reverse.
When the students were finally asked to restate their views in light of the new evidence, both groups doubled down on their initial beliefs; pro-punishment-ers were adamant about its ability to reduce crime, while the anti-punishment-ers remained staunchly unconvinced (reminder: the groups reviewed identical studies!).
As humans, we really love being right. So much so that we’ll just about find anything to back our claims, despite whether it’s intentional or not.
It makes sense then that a clogged Instagram feed of your peers drinking Aperols in Croatia and the constant lunch room chatter about Susan’s upcoming trip to Turkey are enough to leave you convinced — everyone must be in Europe right now.
Alas, if we’d just take a quick look around or do a little headcount, we’d be quick to realise that the majority of Aussies are still very much in Australia, even if they’re all dreaming of warmer climates.
For established brands, Confirmation Bias is a good reminder to accentuate what people already believe, knowing that it’s tough to change hearts and minds. If they already think that you’re a bank for small business, ramp that up. If they believe you’re a university that’s all about sport science, lean into it hard. If instead, you’re looking to change perceptions beyond where your brand can currently stretch, know that it’s possible, but that a long, expensive battle may lie ahead. And if you’re an Aussie brand looking to launch in Europe, now might be a really great time to hit me up.
Behaviourally Yours,
PS If you missed the last edition, you can still check why it always feels like our presentations are a disaster here.
Bad Decisions Podcast
Learn more about Confirmation Bias in episode #6 of the Bad Decisions podcast.
Got a question?
Is there something you’ve always wondered about?
Send it through to AskDan@hardhat.com.au
Want more?
Check out Dan’s write up in Smart Company on the four unconscious biases tanking your investments here.
The Why, The Book
If you’re a fan of having your curly questions answers, secure your copy of the newly released Amazon #1 Best Seller ‘The Why, The Book’ by Dan Monheit here.
